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Showing posts from December, 2015

The Initial Recovery

Normally a business cycle takes 9-11 years to complete a full cycle. In order  to understand a cycle we need understand it in 5 phases 1) The Initial recovery 2) Early upswing 3) Late upswing 4) Slowdown and 5) Recession. When we see in context of India, business cycle is just about to kick start and we have started the first phase of Initial Recovery. Here are some of the key initial signs of Initial recovery Business Confidence : - Recovery last for 6-8 mths where business confidence started rising. Business confidence bottomed out in year 2013 and we have seen initial glimpse of confidence coming back in the year 2015 as more and more global MNC coming to India setting up plants and building with a long term view in the country. G overnment Stimulus : - Government stimulus by way of low interest rates and budget deficit provides the stage for growth. In India government has tried to structure its balance sheet and thanks to the gains from commodity prices gover...